FAKTOR – FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA CABAI MERAH DI KABUPATEN KARO

Abstract

Chilli prices are a key indicator of market value and stability, having a direct impact on farmers, traders and consumers. The price of chilies at market level in Karo Regency has high volatility, which means that the price of chilies fluctuates greatly, which results in instability in the income and welfare of farmers. To see the causes of fluctuations in chili prices in Karo Regency, further research was carried out on the factors that influence chili prices. The aim of this research is to find out how much influence production costs, previous period chili prices, substitute commodity prices, domestic demand, regional demand, community income, rainfall, government policy have on chili prices in Karo Regency. The research was conducted in Simpang Empat District, Karo Regency. The research was conducted from November 2023 to January 2024. This research method uses a quantitative research design with OLS (Ordinary Least Square) data analysis. Data collection was carried out using a survey method. The sampling technique was simple random sampling with a total sample of 73 farmers. Based on the research results, it is known that the regression equation for this research is Y = 82363.9689262 - 0.001658X1 + 0.159312X2 + 0.001163X3 + 0.011058X4 - 101.001X5 + e, where 89.8% of the price of red chilies in Karo district is influenced by the variables in the model. Simultaneously, the independent variables have a significant effect on the price of chilies in Karo district. However, partially the production costs and prices of red chilies in Simalungun Regency have a significant influence on the price of red chilies in Karo Regency. Kolmogorov Smirnov normality test 0.566 > 0.05. Multicollinearity test (X1, -0.391. and the autocorrelation test shows there is no autocorrelation with the Box Ljung Statistics test, the value of Sig lag 1 – lag 16 is > 0.05.